Kriti PatelTLDR:
– A new study predicts that more than half of all jobs driving the US economy will be significantly impacted and potentially automated by AI.
– Generative AI, like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, has the potential to inject as much as $1 trillion into the US economy over the next decade.
According to a study by Cognizant and Oxford Economics, the adoption of AI technology in the US will result in significant job automation. The study used a model to simulate different levels of AI business adoption and how those rates could impact jobs and careers. It found that over half of all jobs driving the US economy will be significantly impacted by AI, with certain tasks being automated. The study also predicts that AI technology, specifically generative AI, could inject as much as $1 trillion into the US economy over the next decade.
The model examined how quickly businesses will adopt AI technology. Currently, 13% of companies are already using AI technology, but this is expected to grow to 31% in the next four to eight years, depending on the level of aggression used in the model, and nearly 50% in 10 years. The study focused on 18,000 tasks that drive the US economy and the impact of generative AI on the approximately 1,000 jobs that use these tasks. The model showed that AI could lead to 9% of the US workforce losing their jobs in the next 10 years.
Other studies have also projected large disruptions to the workforce due to AI. A Goldman Sachs report estimated that over 300 million jobs worldwide could be disrupted by AI, while a McKinsey report predicted that at least 12 million Americans would need to find new jobs by 2030. However, the study also found that AI will cause an economic boom. US productivity is projected to grow by at least 1.7% and as much as 3.5% over the next decade due to AI, resulting in an increase in the US GDP by $477 billion to $1 trillion annually.
The study’s authors noted that AI will impact the workforce differently than previous technological advancements. Instead of replacing manual labor jobs, AI is expected to have a bigger effect on knowledge work. Some careers in knowledge work have already seen 50% of their most important tasks replaced by AI, a number that could grow to 80% in 10 years. The study suggests that this paradigm shift presents an opportunity for rethinking skills and training, marking a new phase of employee development and business strategy.
